Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States
NEW YORK, January 27 - Jim Williams, Professor at the University of San Francisco, and Director of SDSN’s Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), along with energy modeling experts from Evolved Energy Research and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, have published Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States in the journal AGU Advances. This research describes multiple possible pathways for the United States to reach net- zero and net-negative CO2 emissions by 2050 in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.
“Major economies around the world are designing blueprints to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. These include the European Union, Japan, Korea, and China (by 2060). President Biden will promote a US policy of net-zero by 2050. This new research by Williams and his colleagues provides essential guidance on how best to meet this crucial challenge. The study will be enormously useful for government, business, and researchers - Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University, and Chair, SDSN USA
Key results from the new study demonstrate that the U.S. can reach zero net CO2 emissions from energy and industry in 2050 at a net cost of 0.2-1.2% of GDP, not counting the benefits of avoiding damages from climate change or the health benefits from improved air quality. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and capturing carbon. Least cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus limited thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system is feasible at somewhat higher cost and land use.
Despite the feasibility of such a transition, there are major challenges that must be addressed. The scale and pace of infrastructure buildout and demands on the land in a low-carbon transition imply competition among social, environmental, and economic priorities and distributional impacts. This model includes scenarios to illustrate the kinds of tradeoffs that can be anticipated and their impacts.
The actions required in the next 10 years are known with high confidence and align with those found in other recent work, including Princeton’s Net Zero America Project. The highest-priority near-term actions are similar across all the modeled pathways and have clear quantitative benchmarks for policy:
- Renewables buildout (>500 GW total wind and solar capacity by 2030)
- Coal retirement (<1% of total generation by 2030)
- Maintaining current nuclear and natural gas capacity
- Electrification of light-duty vehicles (EVs > 50% of LDV sales by 2030) and buildings (heat pumps >50% of residential HVAC sales by 2030)
Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States builds on SDSN’s DDPP work which published its Synthesis Report in 2015 and then 350 PPM Pathways for the United States in 2019. In addition, this modeling work served as the technological framework for SDSN USA’s Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP) , a report that makes policy recommendations to support the transition of energy infrastructure throughout the country. Jim Williams and Ryan Jones served as members of SDSN USA’s Zero Carbon Consortium and were the authors of Chapter 2. Technology Pathways to Net-Zero in the ZCAP report.
Authors
- James H. Williams ; University of San Francisco, San Francisco; Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, Sustainable Development Solutions Network
- Ryan A. Jones ; Evolved Energy Research
- Ben Haley ; Evolved Energy Research
- Gabe Kwok ; Evolved Energy Research
- Jeremy Hargreaves ; Evolved Energy Research
- Jamil Farbes ; Evolved Energy Research
- Margaret S. Torn ; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley; Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley
About the SDSN
SDSN mobilizes global scientific and technological expertise to promote practical solutions for sustainable development, including the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) and the Paris Climate Agreement.
About SDSN’s Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is an SDSN Solution Initiative co-founded with the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) to prepare national low-emission development pathways to 2050, consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures to well below 2°C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement on climate change. The DDPP was initially made up of 16 Country Research Teams composed of leading researchers and research institutions from countries representing more than 70% of global greenhouse emissions. These teams developed a variety of national decarbonization scenarios taking into account local contexts and economic growth. With these pathways, the project has demonstrated that decarbonization by mid-century is technically feasible when supported with the right policy mechanisms and long-term planning. The project now focuses on supporting the development of long-term low-emission development strategies, as agreed in the Paris Agreement.
Media Contact
Cheyenne Maddox
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