COP30 Retrospectives and NDCs: Energy Transition Insights and Strategic Implications

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, marked a turning point in the global climate regime, reinforcing the message that the international community has moved beyond the era of pledges and entered the era of implementation. This shift is clearly reflected in the latest cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which demonstrate notable improvements in scope, coverage, and alignment with long-term decarbonisation goals.

Between January 2024 and November 2025, 86 NDCs submitted by 113 Parties were recorded in the UNFCCC NDC registry. These submissions, synthesized in the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report and a subsequent update by Mr. Simon Stiell at COP30, indicate that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2035 are projected to be approximately 12% lower than 2019 levels (including LULUCF). While this represents a significant improvement compared to pre-Paris trajectories, once projecting a 20-48% increase, it remains insufficient to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach. The emissions gap persists, underscoring the need for accelerated and more decisive action in the energy, as well as land and forest sectors.

Key Insights from the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report

The quality of NDCs has improved substantially, yet NDC ambitions can be raised. Nearly 89% of Parties now communicate economy-wide mitigation targets, up from 81% in earlier rounds. An overwhelming 98% outline mitigation measures across major emitting sectors, with energy supply, transport, and industry featuring prominently. Solar and wind deployment, electrification, fuel switching, and efficiency improvements dominate energy-related commitments, reflecting increased technological maturity and cost competitiveness.

Adaptation has also gained prominence. About 73% of Parties include dedicated adaptation components, covering food security, water, health, ecosystems, and disaster risk management. Importantly, countries are moving toward more measurable adaptation planning, with improved monitoring frameworks and quantified indicators, which is an essential prerequisite for scaling adaptation finance.

Loss and Damage has emerged as a central policy issue with major practical implications. The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, including an initial USD 250 million allocation for start-up projects, was widely recognized at COP30 as modest, but symbolically significant. The majority of Parties now explicitly reference observed impacts, such as droughts, floods, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events, while over 70% outline planned actions to avert, minimize, or address these impacts.

Global Emissions Outlook: Progress Made, Gaps Remaining

Despite progress, current NDCs still fall short of a 1.5°C-consistent pathway. Energy-related emissions remain the dominant driver of the gap, particularly in fossil fuel–dependent power systems, hard-to-abate industrial sectors, and rapidly growing demand in emerging economies. COP30 discussions, therefore, increasingly focused not only on scaling renewables, but also on the politically sensitive issue of fossil fuel phase-out.

A coalition of more than 80 countries formally called for a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap to be anchored in the Belém outcome. This demand signals a shift from abstract references to “transitioning away” from fossil fuels toward concrete timelines, sequencing, and policy frameworks. The risk of negotiation deadlock highlighted how central this issue will be in shaping climate diplomacy over the coming years.

New Climate Finance Dynamics: From Baku to Belém

Finance remains one of the implementation bottlenecks. Around 88% of Parties reported quantified financing needs for NDC implementation, totaling nearly USD 2 trillion. While domestic resources are expected to play a role, most countries — particularly developing and climate-vulnerable states — continue to rely heavily on international support.

COP30 built on momentum from the Baku to Belém Roadmap, which aims to scale climate finance toward USD 1.3 trillion by leveraging concessional finance, fiscal instruments, multilateral development banks, and private capital. At the same time, ministers struggled to break the deadlock on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance, including whether obligations should remain limited to developed countries or be broadened to include wealthier emerging economies.

Philanthropy also featured prominently in the discussions, with increasing calls for a shift from traditional grant-based approaches toward catalytic capital that can de-risk early-stage investments and crowd in institutional finance. This reflects a broader recognition that fragmented project-by-project funding is insufficient; instead, countries need support to build investable portfolios aligned with national energy and transition strategies, as well as to strengthen implementation capacities.

Global Implementation Accelerator

A series of measures announced at COP30 under the Global Mutirão include the launch of a Global Implementation Accelerator (GIA), aiming to mobilize actors and resources, accelerate implementation, and international cooperation for scaling up climate solutions. The GIA aims to:

1. Prioritize actions with better scalability and speed, including methane emission reduction and carbon removal through nature-based solutions; and
2. Advance interventions that can leverage positive tipping points, such as renewables, batteries, reducing the cost of capital, digitalization, and multilateral bank reform.

Soil carbon sequestration and reforestation of forests, mangroves, and seagrasses present some of the lowest costs and easiest to implement opportunities to advance scalable, inclusive, and equitable climate solutions. These can be further supported through the implementation of Article 6 mechanisms, including developing best practice cooperation templates, strengthening partnerships based on existing trade or development relationships, voluntary markets, and compliance systems.

To scale up the implementation of these solutions and interventions, calls for awareness and action from all levels of actors, governments, businesses, and society are needed. Their effective implementation will rely on conducive national policy and market measures, well-developed local practice and business models, as well as adequate implementation capacity in human resources and financing.

The GIA can play a key role in connecting global ambition and local action, while facilitating a more efficient national process for NDC implementation and the NDC planning process. This will, in turn, help to guide the development of more ambitious NDCs and foster partnerships among all levels of stakeholders.

Fossil Fuel Phase-out Roadmap

During the COP30, the Brazilian presidency made an attempt to initiate a process for developing a roadmap for transitioning to a fossil fuel-free economy in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, which was supported by over 80 countries. A Fossil Fuel Phase-out Roadmap would have become a major milestone after the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) initiative was established at the COP26 in Glasgow.

Acknowledging that around 40% of global emissions still come from coal and another 20% from fossil fuels in the transport sector, the significance of a Fossil Fuel Phase-out Roadmap is multi-fold:

• Phasing out fossil fuels is a crucial step for the world to achieve the Paris Agreement and Net Zero by mid-century.
• It is a unique and crucial opportunity to provide an actionable roadmap and guide just transition and sustainable development pathways away from fossil fuels, through a validated global process endorsed by countries and governments.
• This will guide more ambitious commitments away from fossil fuels, supported through future COP processes and GST processes by embedding phase-out milestones into NDCs and national development and sectoral plans, establishing accountability mechanisms, enhancing transparency, and harmonizing fossil-fuel finance reporting.
• A roadmap can help to initiate a more transparent process and set a credible timeline to phase out fossil fuels, thus providing a positive signal for investments into clean energy infrastructure and solutions.
• It will help to bolster the commitment and momentum for coal phase-out from existing multilateral initiatives such as JETP, Glasgow Finance Alliance on Net Zero (GFANZ), and Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM).

A roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out supported by countries and governments is long overdue. It is a critical piece that will uphold our commitments and strategies for climate action globally, not only to address the current climate crisis, but for the benefit and well-being of future generations.

Strategic Implications for COP31 and Beyond

Looking ahead to COP31, three priorities stand out: (1) scaling ambition, (2) closing the finance gap, and (3) accelerating implementation. The launch of initiatives, such as the NAP Implementation Alliance, which is designed to directly connect National Adaptation Plans with financiers, signals a growing appetite for pragmatic solutions that bypass negotiation gridlock.

For the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition (CEET), COP30 outcomes point to two particularly strategic engagement opportunities. First, CEET can contribute technical expertise to the emerging fossil fuel phase-out roadmap debate, helping translate political commitments into credible, sequenced transition pathways that are economically and socially viable. Second, CEET is well-positioned to engage with the emerging Global Implementation Accelerator agenda, supporting countries in moving from targets to delivery through systems thinking, engineering-based solutions aligned with just transition principles, and integrated energy planning to facilitate sustainable development.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres reminded Parties in Belém, “1.5 degrees must be your only red line.” COP30 made clear that achieving this goal now depends less on new promises and more on making the energy transition socio-economically irresistible – and, above all, implementable at scale.

Emi Gui is an Associate Professor at Monash University Malaysia; Selen İnal is a Clean Energy and Green Transition Consultant at EcoMuse Consulting.

About the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition (CEET)

This article is part of the Energy Insights Series published by the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition (CEET). The CEET is a global, high-level body of engineers and energy systems experts, created under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary-General, with the goal of building coalitions and energy pathways for comprehensive decarbonization.

It should be acknowledged that these materials are for discussion purposes only, given the rapidly changing landscape of the energy transition and the various contexts in which they are relevant. CEET members are participating in their individual capacity and expertise without remuneration. Their professional affiliations are for identification purposes only, and their views and perspectives, including any statements, publications, social media posts, etc., are not representative of the United Nations, the SDSN, or UNIDO.