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Massachusetts 2050 Decarbonization Roadmap

By Fiona Laird

In December 2020, Massachusetts released their plan for reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, “ Massachusetts 2050 Decarbonization Roadmap ”. Following Governor Charlie Baker’s announcement in January 2020 (formalized in February 2020) of Massachusetts’ goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs went to work creating the Decarbonization Roadmap, outlining clear technical and policy pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in the state. Evolved Energy Research, who was also responsible for the modeling and technical pathways for SDSN’s Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP) , conducted the modeling, producing 8 technological pathways to net-zero as well as identifying the least-cost pathway to achieve net-zero carbon emissions and ensure the continued resilience and vibrancy of the Massachusetts economy.

In all 8 pathways, four pillars of decarbonization stand out as essential for achieving net-zero emissions:

  • Increasing energy efficiency
  • Electrifying end‐use technologies
  • Decarbonizing electricity
  • Using carbon capture technology

These are similar to the four pillars of decarbonization included in ZCAP. While the specifics of each pathway vary, the Roadmap identifies policies and overall systems strategies that will be necessary to achieve net-zero by 2050 in the areas of transportation, buildings, energy supply, non-energy, and land use.

Key policy action from the report includes:

  • To keep pace with the emissions reductions necessary to reach net-zero by 2050, of the projected 5.5 million light duty vehicles (LDVs) predicted to be in use in Massachusetts in 2030, 1 million must be zero emissions vehicles. Low turnover of light duty vehicles presents challenges for replacing current vehicles with zero emissions versions. Policies similar to those being considered by the State of California requiring 100% of new vehicle sales to be ZEVs could be one strategy to address this.
  • For medium and heavy duty vehicles (MDVs and HDVs), where vehicle turnover is even lower than for LDVs, decarbonization will require a variety of strategies. Because of continued uncertainty surrounding the best approach to decarbonize MDVs and HDVs, entities that operate large fleets of MDVs and HDVs will need to plan ahead for seamless decarbonization in the 2030s once technology becomes more certain. An additional component of this will be providing the necessary demand to spur further technological development for decarbonization strategies for MDVs and HDVs, such as encouraging Massachusetts fleet operators to pilot electrified MDVs/HDVs or hydrogen solutions. Key to decarbonization of this sector will be overcoming barriers associated with charging and hydrogen infrastructure.
  • Decarbonizing the Massachusetts building stock will require strategies for both new and existing buildings. For new buildings, a net-zero emissions building energy code will help ensure that new construction produces net-zero emissions buildings and expensive renovations will not need to happen further on down the line. This building code will include elements such as electric design and use of bio-based materials. For buildings already in existence, “just under three million housing units will need some level of heating system retrofit over the next 30 years, including about one million statewide by 2030” (MA 2050 Decarbonization Roadmap). One aspect of this transition suggests the need for programs that support easy adoption of clean energy building retrofits; the plan mentions that the Mass Save program could help drive this, focusing on replacing equipment at the end of its life or selling new equipment that meets energy standards. Another aspect of the transition requires additional research into policy strategies that could help finance the upfront costs of updating the existing building stock, as well as ensure an equitable transition in which cost is not a barrier to net-zero building retrofits by homeowners and support sustainable use of zero-carbon gas for hard-to-electrify buildings.
  • To supply renewable energy for Massachusetts, the report recommends expansion of offshore wind in concert with hydropower resources from Canada to provide electricity when wind power is less abundant. This requires both ramping up generation and infrastructure at much faster rates, including additional transmission lines, meaning that planning must begin now. Between solar and wind resources, “...Massachusetts and the region must site and construct offshore wind and ground-mounted solar generation at scale, installing on average about 1 GW each year, from 2030 to 2050, region-wide” (MA 2050 Decarbonization Roadmap).
  • Non-energy and industrial emissions are challenging to decarbonize, and thus a large portion will likely remain in 2050. Strategies to ensure net-zero emissions is possible, even with difficult-to-decarbonize sectors continuing to emit, include both targeting equipment replacement to ensure equipment is replaced with high efficiency models and ceasing use of fluorinated gases. Continuing to preserve Massachusetts forests to maintain their carbon sequestration ability is crucial as well for enabling net-zero emissions.
  • According to the report, “by 2050, Massachusetts will need to have developed and secured at least 4-9 MMTCO2 e of annual sequestration services beyond those that can be provided by the Commonwealth’s own natural and working lands” (MA 2050 Decarbonization Roadmap). Further research into carbon sequestration strategies is necessary; a significant amount of carbon sequestration could occur at a regional level in partnership with other states.

Next steps for the project include the development of a dashboard with interactive data, and further development of policy pathways to facilitate the transition to net-zero emissions and a sustainable economy. This plan adds to an exciting number of state decarbonization and emissions reductions plans released in the last 5 years, including Montana, New Mexico, California, Colorado, Oregon, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Connecticut and Rhode Island, and serves as an instructive and inspiring model for states currently developing or considering developing climate action plans.