Siting Clean Energy and Minimizing Habitat Loss: A Roadmap for the Western U.S.

Governments around the world are increasingly committing to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century in order to reduce the worst impacts of climate change. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires the deep decarbonization of all sectors of the economy, especially that of energy, which accounts for the majority of emissions worldwide. Decarbonization of the energy sector will depend on the accelerated deployment of clean energy infrastructure at an unprecedented scale and pace, with wind and solar power plant development in the U.S., for example, needing to reach three to four times the current build rate to reach net zero by mid-century. This increase in renewable energy development has important environmental and social implications that must be accounted for in decarbonization planning and policy in order to achieve better outcomes for climate, conservation, and communities.

Experts from The Nature Conservancy, Evolved Energy Research, Montara Mountain Energy, and UC Santa Barbara––including co-authors of SDSN’s Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, America’s Zero Carbon Action Plan, San Diego Regional Decarbonization Framework, and the US FABLE Consortium team-–have developed a novel methodology for integrating nature into energy planning. By combining energy, economic, geospatial, environmental, and policy analyses, these experts are able to produce comprehensive clean energy studies that help decision-makers identify the best path to achieve net-zero emissions, while minimizing siting conflicts. The high spatial detail used in this approach enables local stakeholders and decision-makers to make informed, place-based decisions that can dramatically reduce the impacts of low-carbon infrastructure build-out on wildlife, natural and agricultural lands, and ocean areas at a minimal cost. Such analyses provide a scientific case for proactively planning to limit environmental impacts as governments, both national and subnational, plan for a clean energy future. 

In 2019, this methodology was used to provide a roadmap for how the state of California could achieve decarbonization while limiting impacts on high value natural and agricultural lands. Now, in 2023, these leading researchers have expanded on the California study by examining how climate and conservation goals can be achieved simultaneously across the eleven Western Interconnection states. This new study, Minimizing habitat conflicts in meeting net-zero energy targets in the western United States, combines best-in-class energy and geospatial modeling tools with the latest ecosystem and wildlife habitat data to advise the deployment of clean energy infrastructure across Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. The analysis includes the power, transportation, heating, and manufacturing sectors, as well as a wide array of carbon-neutral energy technologies (e.g., solar, onshore and offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, nuclear, gas with carbon capture, and direct air capture), to develop spatially explicit scenarios that meet 2050 net-zero goals based on various mixes of technologies, transmission, and levels of environmental (i.e., land/ocean use) protections. The study was designed to answer the following questions:

1. What are the land and ocean area requirements across a range of net-zero and siting scenarios?
2. How does protecting land and ocean areas with high conservation value affect the cost and technology choices of reaching net zero?
3. What are the ecological and landscape impacts of protecting areas with high conservation value and how do the demographics of host communities vary across scenarios?
   

Key findings of the study include:

• It is possible to achieve economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions reductions across the West, while meeting future energy needs and avoiding the most sensitive natural and working lands. The amount of suitable land available is many times the amount needed for 2050 decarbonization. With improved energy planning and siting practices, the region can achieve its climate and conservation goals by developing just 21 million acres in areas with lower conservation value. 
• Impacts to sensitive natural and working lands can be avoided at minimal additional cost. The total cost of the clean energy transition will increase by 3% by 2050 with increased environmental protection in the High Electrification scenario. In the Renewables Only scenario, the cost is 10% higher.
• High voltage transmission capacity needs can be met through a combination of co-location, reconductoring, and strategically sited new transmission corridors.
• The annual wind and solar capacity build-rate will need to be 4-8x current rates by 2050 in the High Electrification and Renewables Only scenarios, respectively.
• The High Electrification scenario, which utilizes electricity generation the most efficiently, has the lowest total land and ocean area requirements of the core scenarios, and is thus the West’s optimal decarbonization pathway for climate and conservation.
• Meeting the net-zero target with stronger environmental protections did not significantly alter the share of different energy generation technologies.
• A high level of environmental protection creates a shift away from wind in the Intermountain West to solar in the Southwest.
• Offshore wind accounts for 10-20% of the wind necessary to achieve net-zero in 2050 and less than 1 million acres of ocean area.
• Working lands will host a significant share of new solar, wind, and transmission development if business as usual continues, but improved energy planning and siting practices can focus new development on marginal agricultural lands, instead.
• The experts also offer key science-based policy recommendations to inform a cost-effective transition that maximizes community, conservation, and economic benefits. The implementation of these recommendations is essential as the Western region only has a few years to create and improve policies and plans to advance low-impact clean energy development.

The spatially explicit energy planning framework created by these experts demonstrates that with adequate, science-based planning, the transition to net zero is technically feasible, affordable, and environmentally sustainable. While this study is focused on the Western United States, the researchers are currently working on a national U.S. study using new methods that can inform such comprehensive planning worldwide.