Supporting Benin's LT-LEDS Strategy: Modeling Pathways to 2050 with the FABLE Calculator
Benin is taking bold steps toward a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. Through collaboration with the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), the NDC Partnership, ministries, and technical partners, the country is updating its Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) using the FABLE Calculator to model how to reduce agricultural emissions while achieving food security, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development goals.
As Benin’s LT-LEDS reaches its end in 2025, the government has launched a review to guide the strategy’s next phase. In collaboration with the NDC Partnership, the Ministry of Environment and Transport (in charge of Sustainable Development), and Climate Analytics, SDSN developed a FABLE Calculator tailored to Benin’s national context and used it to model a “Mitigation Options” pathway.
This pathway explores how Benin can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use) by 2030 and 2050, while evaluating other critical objectives, including food security, biodiversity conservation, land and input use in agriculture, agricultural employment, and trade balance.
The SDSN carried out two missions in Cotonou and Bohicon to co-develop the mitigation pathway with local partners, ensuring it reflects Benin’s priorities and local realities. The missions also demonstrated how the FABLE Calculator operates to government actors and stakeholders, ensuring transparency in the modeling process and enabling cross-sectoral dialogue on the results and their implications for Benin’s development goals.
First Mission: Meeting Partners and Gathering Insights
The first mission, led by Davide Cozza (Junior Analyst, SDSN) and Maria Diaz (FABLE Senior Manager, SDSN), took place in Cotonou from October 15 to 17, 2024, with support from Climate Analytics. Over four days, the team met with key national institutions, including the General Directorate for Environment and Climate, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the University of Abomey-Calavi.
The team collected feedback on the data and assumptions used to define a business-as-usual pathway and to identify priority mitigation measures shaping sustainable trajectories for Benin. These meetings also focused on building local collaboration by engaging potential researchers who could continue developing the FABLE Calculator beyond the project’s duration.
Second Mission: Presenting Results and Exploring Collaborations
The second mission, led by Davide Cozza and Clara Douzal (FABLE Researcher, SDSN), took place in Cotonou and Bohicon from August 25 to 29, 2025. The mission’s main objective was to present the Mitigation Options Pathway results to relevant ministries, gather feedback, and assess their suitability within the government’s long-term plans.
The three-day “Training and Modeling Results” workshop in Bohicon brought together approximately 60 participants, including government representatives, private sector actors, technical and financial partners, and civil society organizations.
The SDSN presented scenarios and results for Benin’s food and land-use system, examining its contribution to national climate mitigation goals and synergies with other sustainability objectives. The workshop also enhanced participants’ understanding of modeling tools such as the FABLE Calculator and the LEAP model by explaining their underlying methodologies.
The mission also strengthened ties with SDSN Benin, hosted by the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the University of Abomey-Calavi. Meeting with Professor Nadia Fanou Fogny and Dr. Achille Assouto, the team discussed collaboration opportunities for building long-term modeling capacity in the country’s food and land-use system through the FABLE methods and tools.
Key Findings and Outlook
The results of the pathway built with the FABLE Calculator highlight both the challenges and opportunities facing Benin on its path toward a low-carbon and climate-resilient future.
As one of the fastest-growing countries in West Africa, Benin must balance economic and demographic expansion with the need to limit emissions from its food and land-use systems. Achieving this balance requires coordinated efforts across several fronts: improving agricultural productivity, promoting more sustainable and diversified diets, managing land more efficiently, and fostering afforestation and biodiversity protection.
While the transition will demand significant investment and policy commitment, the results show that Benin can reduce emissions while strengthening food security and rural livelihoods — proving that sustainability and development can go hand in hand.
About 2050 is Now
This collaboration was made possible through the support of Germany’s International Climate Initiative (IKI), under the umbrella of the 2050 is Now initiative. ‘2050 is Now’ is an international consortium of partners combining local expertise and global reach to promote decision-making, policymaking, and planning for countries to develop and update long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies, also known as LT-LEDS. Partners include Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), World Resources Institute (WRI), Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), 2050 Pathways Platform, and Fundación Bariloche.
