Spatial Planning for Low-Carbon Transitions
A low carbon-transition of global economies will require significant changes to the way we use and manage our land resources. This will come from both an energy systems transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable or low-carbon sources that require significant land area [1], as well as a food systems and forestry transition to sustainable land management practices that reduce agricultural emissions and protect and enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Globally, 25% of carbon emission are due to electricity and heat production, 14% from transportation, 10% from other energy production (refining, extraction, etc.), and 6% from buildings (for on-site energy and heat production). Collectively, the need for energy in these sectors accounts for 55% of global emissions and will need to be reduced through the combination of low-carbon electricity generation and electrification of buildings and vehicles or the production of low-carbon liquid and gas fuels. Generating low-carbon electricity to both substitute existing fossil fuel electricity and meet these additional energy end-uses will require the massive expansion of new renewable and low-carbon electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, which may also have significant land use requirements and impacts. Land conflicts could in turn stymie the rapid scale-up of renew- able energy infrastructure needed to achieve these climate goals—adding to the risks of low-carbon transitions. Reducing the remaining 25% of global emissions from the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFLOU) sector will require us to change how we manage land–e.g., halting the rapid pace of natural habitat loss, improving fertilizer application, adopting conservation tillage, restoring and reforesting degraded lands. How we manage this land use transition can facilitate or hinder a low-carbon transition.
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